The existing home sales report shows there was a drop in November of last year, which is normal because the winter months often cause many people to back out of the market. Many of the talking heads in the media like to report that the market is down right now, but that's simply not true. In fact, so far, this winter has been one of the best we've seen in a decade!
When taking a look at pending homes over the last few years, you'll notice that they plummeted in November of 2013. When looking at pending home sales for 2014, pending home sales remained high even though we usually see a significant drop during the winter months. They dropped a little bit, but they didn't crash like they did in 2013.
Now, let's take a look at home prices. Appreciation, year over year, is slowing down. The headlines you've read about falling home prices are incorrect - prices are simply rising at a slower rate than they were in previous years. According to Case Schiller, prices were up 13.2% in January 2014 over January 2013; by August they were only up 5.6% year over year, and by October of last year the year-over-year price change was at 4.5%. So, home values are still on the rise, but their value isn't going up at the same rate as it was in years past.
Although we have seen a slowdown in appreciation over the last 12 months, we're expecting the appreciation rates to be higher in 2015 than we saw in 2014. Most experts are predicting home prices to rise an average of 3.7% in the coming year. That will bring us much closer to steady levels, which is some great news!
Where do we expect interest rates to go, you ask? Taking a look at the first quarter of January 2013, you'll see that rates were under 3.5%, before skyrocketing toward the middle of 2013. They've been falling ever since, trying to find that equilibrium point. Remember, part of the reason the government wants to keep interest rates low is to spur the economy and keep people spending. At this time last year, people thought rates were going to jump in the near future, but because the economy never recovered the way they expected it to, rates have remained low!
If rates do rise soon, it will have a significant impact on your purchasing power. If you're looking at a $300,000 home when rates are 3.75%, a rise of just 1% will cost you 10% of your purchasing power (that's $30,000)! We'll keep you updated on where rates are heading, but you need to be wary of waiting to make your move.
We hope you find this information helpful. Give us a call or shoot us an email if you would like real estate assistance of any kind, we're always here to help!
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